Students will demonstrate knowledge of the diverse literatures 
on choosing among uncertain options.  This has traditionally 
been seen as influenced by two factors: the utility of each 
option's outcomes (i.e., how strongly you believe the outcomes 
will occur).  The course examines theories of decision making 
under uncertainty, where both utility and probability play a 
role.  We will also discuss subjective probability and utility 
as independent topics.

1) Introduction and survey 2) How we see the world 3) How we 
ask questions 4) Expected Utility Theory 5) Paradoxes 6) 
Descriptive Models 7) Representativeness 8) Bayesian updating 
and base-rate neglect 9) Review and Exam 1 10) Availability, 
anchoring and adjustment 11) Overconfidence 12) Randomness to 
control 13) Attribution theory 14) Social effects 15) Self-
fulfilling prophecies and other traps 16) Review and Exam 2.

It is your responsibility to be familiar with university 
policies and penalties for academic dishonesty, including 
cheating and plagiarism.  cheating includes, but is not limited 
to, copying off another's exam, showing another person your 
work on an exam, turning in a paper you didn't write, or 
knowingly allowing another to turn in a paper you did write.  
Plagiarism includes copying phrases or passages word-for-word 
from an article or book without using uqotation marks and 
citing the source, or using the ideas or words of another 
without giving them credit.  Possible penalties upon conviction 
of academic dishonesty include a grade of "F" for the course, 
and can be as severe as expulsion from the university.