The course is intended to provide a comprehensive introduction to the field of
judgment and decision making, which is a sub-specialty of cognitive psychology.
At the conclusion, students will be conversant with the major topics of rational
decision theory, the heuristics-and-biases approach to psychology, and their
major rivals.  Performance will be assessed on the basis of three course
requirements:
1. Class discussions will be led in most cases by students.  All students will be
   required to lead an equal number of class discussions.
2. When not leading discussion, students are required to contribute to the
   discussion, both by directly participating in the discussion and by providing 
   possible discussion questions to the discussion leader in advance.
3. Each student will be required to write a scholarly term paper on a topic of
   judgment and decision making.

The following topic areas will be covered in the course:

1.  Introduction to heuristics and biases
2.  Heuristics and biases
3.  Anti-Heuristics and biases
4.  Heuristics and small biases
5.  Bayesian reasoning and base-rate neglect
6.  Recent developments in bayesian reasoning
7.  Causal judgment
8.  Judgment of personal causality
9.  Overconfidence
10. Hypothesis testing
11. Conditional reasoning: the selection task
12. Judgment after the fact
13. Belief updating

Students in the course will be subject to the University Honor
Code and Academic Honesty Policy.  Violations will be prosecuted
as prescribed in the Policy.