An introduction to the art and science of political forecasting. Students learn foundational skills in probability, statistics, and mathematical modeling, and test their knowledge through weekly forecasting challenges.
Athena Title
How To Predict The Future
Prerequisite
POLS 1101 or POLS 1101E or POLS 1101H or POLS 1101S
Grading System
A - F (Traditional)
Student Learning Outcomes
By the conclusion of this course, students will understand the assumptions and insights from a broad set of foundational models in social science.
By the conclusion of this course, students will have increased confidence in their ability to engage with mathematical concepts.
By the conclusion of this course, students will be capable of “many-to-one” thinking (i.e., applying multiple models to understand a single topic).
By the conclusion of this course, students will be capable of “one-to-many” thinking (i.e., applying a single model to understand multiple topics).
Topical Outline
Week 1: What Are Models? (And Why Many Models Are Better Than One)
Week 2: Probability
Week 3: Linear Models
Week 4: Trees, Forests, and Machine Learning
Week 5: Models of Growth and Change, Markov Models
Week 6: Diffusion, Contagion, and Percolation
Week 7-8: Game Theory
Week 9: Cooperation, Collective Action, and Culture
Week 10: Spatial Models and Voting
Week 11: Sorting Models
Week 12: Networks
Week 13: Causality and System Dynamics
Week 14: Learning and Problem Solving
Week 15: Multi-Armed Bandits and Rugged Landscapes
